Daniel H. Rosen is a founding partner of RHG and leads the firm’s work on China. He is affiliated with a number of American think tanks focused on international economics, and is an Adjunct Associate Professor at Columbia University. From 2000-2001, Mr. Rosen was Senior Adviser for International Economic Policy at the White House National Economic Council and National Security Council. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and board member of the National Committee on US-China Relations.
The dominant pattern in China’s international trade since 2000 was deficits with less developed nations around the world and suppliers of intermediate inputs in the rest of Asia, while it ran even larger trade surpluses with the US and EU. As a result of faltering Chinese demand for raw materials, flattening re-exports of regionally sourced intermediates, and changing terms of trade, that pattern has ended. China now runs a surplus with virtually every region of the world, and current macro-dynamics suggest this will be enduring. At the same time, China plans to step-up official development credits and export financing subsidies to much of the emerging world. Will that be enough to sustain the shift in geo-economic influence to China which typified the past two decades?