Paul Armstrong-Taylor is currently Professor of Economics at the Hopkins-Nanjing Center, the China campus of Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). Before coming to the Hopkins-Nanjing Center, he was a Visiting Professor of Economics and Finance at Shanghai Jiaotong University. He has previously worked as an investment banker at Morgan Stanley, as an economic consultant for London Economics, and as a management consultant for Monitor Group. His research and teaching interests include applied game theory, business strategy and finance. He earned his Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University.
Investors and economists are increasingly concerned that China’s recent growth has depended on, and is threatened by, increasing levels of risky debt. Most of this debt has not come from banks, but from shadow banks. Tonight’s talk will attempt to understand the shadow banking system in China by asking a number of questions. How large is it and how fast is it growing? Why has it replaced bank lending as the main driver of credit growth? Does it represent a serious risk for the Chinese and global economy? What can the government do about it?